Why the Red Sox Will Not Win the World Series
Apr 3, 2016 22:51:25 GMT -5
thomas, Jeremiah:OriolesGM, and 1 more like this
Post by m on Apr 3, 2016 22:51:25 GMT -5
After weighing all the changes and feeding them into my 1960s Batman-like Super Computer, the Red Sox have -345,583,280,356% chance of winning the World Series this year and likely won't make the playoffs. Here's why:
Starting Rotation:
1] Price: Anyone who seriously thinks Price will win the Cy Young is likely either his agent or his mom. He'll get double digit wins and at best have an ERA around 3.50 when the dust settles.
2] Buchholtz: This guy cannot be your #2. His stuff is ridiculous--I remember watching him go pitch-for-pitch vs. Scherzer 3 years ago, it was breath-taking--but he will not stay healthy the entire season, and when he's not healthy he's batting practice for AA.
3] Kelly: Another "if only" guy. "If only" Kelly had a pitch to complement his fastball. "If only" his fastball wasn't so hittable despite causing radar guns to burst into flame. In another universe, Kelly is a #1 and has statues dedicated to him--in this one, he should be pitching in the bullpen, and will at best have BBQ subs "The Heater!" named after him.
4] Porcello: He pitches to contact in a tiny park with a mundane defense behind him, doesn't strike people out, and is sort of an idiot. Good thing he's wrapped up for years to come.
5] Wright: Stephen Wright has better delivery. I love watching knuckleballers when they're on (because I grew up with Bugs Bunny) but Wright is no R.A. Dickey, or Tim Wakefield even.
Relievers:
There are some good pitchers here: Kimbrel, 41-year-old Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Carson Smith. The rest are unremarkable at best and junk at worst.
Position Players (offensively):
C: Swihart may be an above average catcher some day, but he's not there yet.
1B: Experiment #2 in two years with Hanley Ramirez. At least this year he won't be able to crash into the Green Monster.
2B: Pedroia is beloved because he's a "plucky little guy" (see Brock Holt), but in reality he's got almost no power or speed and gets hurt all the time.
SS: Bogaerts is the real deal and still a kid.
3B: Starting Shaw over Sandoval is a joke. Do the Red Sox seriously want to win this year? The answer is no, they do not want to win this year, because if they did they wouldn't start a mediocre talent at a completely new position in the majors and sit Sandoval.
RF: Betts is a demi-god and still a kid.
CF: Bradley Jr. has 3 months to decide whether he joins the team permanently as an interstellar defensive CF who is a streaky hitter or spends his career as a ML backup.
LF: Starting Holt in LF is fucking ridiculous. Like Pedroia, people cheer for him because he's a "plucky little guy," but he averages .280 with 3 HRs and 10 SBs in 450 ABs a year, ie He. Is. Painfully. Powerfully. Boring. I guess he's a role player? Is that a thing? It's a boring thing if it is.
DH: Ortiz is awesome and will be right on it this year from the start (unlike most years, where he treats the first 2 months of the season as spring training).
Position Players (defensively):
Strong up the middle, ridiculously weak at the corners, the Red Sox will aspire to be middle-of-the-pack defensively and very possibly fail.
Final Notes 1.0: It wouldn't surprise me if John Farrell doesn't make it through the season. And he shouldn't--he's supposed to be a huge "pitching" mastermind but the Boston pitching staff has sucked for years now.
Final Notes 2.0: Dombrowski is well on his way to destroying a minor league system that took a decade to get into place.
Final Notes 3.0: I still miss Don Orsillo. Fuck NESN. Right in the ear.
Conclusion: I'll wade through some ugly games early this year, switch over to some Orsillo/Padre broadcasts when I feel like listening to good announcers, and cheer for the Cubs come the playoffs. We should have worked so much harder to keep Theo Epstein.
Starting Rotation:
1] Price: Anyone who seriously thinks Price will win the Cy Young is likely either his agent or his mom. He'll get double digit wins and at best have an ERA around 3.50 when the dust settles.
2] Buchholtz: This guy cannot be your #2. His stuff is ridiculous--I remember watching him go pitch-for-pitch vs. Scherzer 3 years ago, it was breath-taking--but he will not stay healthy the entire season, and when he's not healthy he's batting practice for AA.
3] Kelly: Another "if only" guy. "If only" Kelly had a pitch to complement his fastball. "If only" his fastball wasn't so hittable despite causing radar guns to burst into flame. In another universe, Kelly is a #1 and has statues dedicated to him--in this one, he should be pitching in the bullpen, and will at best have BBQ subs "The Heater!" named after him.
4] Porcello: He pitches to contact in a tiny park with a mundane defense behind him, doesn't strike people out, and is sort of an idiot. Good thing he's wrapped up for years to come.
5] Wright: Stephen Wright has better delivery. I love watching knuckleballers when they're on (because I grew up with Bugs Bunny) but Wright is no R.A. Dickey, or Tim Wakefield even.
Relievers:
There are some good pitchers here: Kimbrel, 41-year-old Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Carson Smith. The rest are unremarkable at best and junk at worst.
Position Players (offensively):
C: Swihart may be an above average catcher some day, but he's not there yet.
1B: Experiment #2 in two years with Hanley Ramirez. At least this year he won't be able to crash into the Green Monster.
2B: Pedroia is beloved because he's a "plucky little guy" (see Brock Holt), but in reality he's got almost no power or speed and gets hurt all the time.
SS: Bogaerts is the real deal and still a kid.
3B: Starting Shaw over Sandoval is a joke. Do the Red Sox seriously want to win this year? The answer is no, they do not want to win this year, because if they did they wouldn't start a mediocre talent at a completely new position in the majors and sit Sandoval.
RF: Betts is a demi-god and still a kid.
CF: Bradley Jr. has 3 months to decide whether he joins the team permanently as an interstellar defensive CF who is a streaky hitter or spends his career as a ML backup.
LF: Starting Holt in LF is fucking ridiculous. Like Pedroia, people cheer for him because he's a "plucky little guy," but he averages .280 with 3 HRs and 10 SBs in 450 ABs a year, ie He. Is. Painfully. Powerfully. Boring. I guess he's a role player? Is that a thing? It's a boring thing if it is.
DH: Ortiz is awesome and will be right on it this year from the start (unlike most years, where he treats the first 2 months of the season as spring training).
Position Players (defensively):
Strong up the middle, ridiculously weak at the corners, the Red Sox will aspire to be middle-of-the-pack defensively and very possibly fail.
Final Notes 1.0: It wouldn't surprise me if John Farrell doesn't make it through the season. And he shouldn't--he's supposed to be a huge "pitching" mastermind but the Boston pitching staff has sucked for years now.
Final Notes 2.0: Dombrowski is well on his way to destroying a minor league system that took a decade to get into place.
Final Notes 3.0: I still miss Don Orsillo. Fuck NESN. Right in the ear.
Conclusion: I'll wade through some ugly games early this year, switch over to some Orsillo/Padre broadcasts when I feel like listening to good announcers, and cheer for the Cubs come the playoffs. We should have worked so much harder to keep Theo Epstein.